Predicting permafrost change
![illustration of fire in a boreal forest, by Joshua Rady](https://assets-woodwell.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/21201447/Screenshot-2025-01-03-at-10.10.58-AM-828x620.png)
graphic by Joshua Rady
How climate models help us see into the Arctic’s future
Asked to picture an Arctic scientist, you might first think of someone in a red field parka navigating sea ice in an inflatable dinghy or measuring snow depth on an expanse of treeless tundra. But much of what we’re learning about Northern ecosystems and what the region’s future could look like comes from scientists sitting before screens, working with code and supercomputers. These researchers train sets of complex equations called models that make valuable predictions about the future climate and its impacts based on what we know about how ecosystems work and what we’ve observed in the past.
Permafrost Pathways
Research area
Latest in Carbon
![Collapsing permafrost thaw field](https://assets-woodwell.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/21202834/permafrost-thaw-field-arctic-coastalerosion-CL_20140705201526-505x328.jpg)
- In The News
Sobering news for the North
Read on CBC
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Anna Virkkala
![Burned spruce trees are silhouetted against a grey sky](https://assets-woodwell.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/21204003/DSCN7443-505x328.jpg)
- In The News
A third of the Arctic’s vast carbon sink now a source of emissions, study reveals
Read on The Guardian
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Susan M. Natali,
Anna Virkkala