Ecological warning lights have blinked on across the Arctic over the last 40 years, according to new research, and many of the fastest-changing areas are clustered in Siberia, the Canadian Northwest Territories, and Alaska. The analysis of the rapidly warming Arctic-boreal region, published in Geophysical Research Letters this week, provides a zoomed-in picture of ecosystems experiencing some of the fastest and most extreme climate changes on Earth. 

Many of the most climate-stressed areas featured permafrost, or ground that stays frozen year-round, and experienced both severe warming and drying in recent decades.

To identify these “hotspots,” a team of researchers from Woodwell Climate Research Center, the University of Oslo, the University of Montana, the Environmental Systems Research Institute (Esri), and the University of Lleida used more than 30 years of geospatial data and long-term temperature records to assess indicators of ecosystem vulnerability in three categories: temperature, moisture, and vegetation. 

Building on assessments like the NOAA Arctic Report Card, the research team went beyond evaluating isolated metrics of change and looked at multiple variables at once to create a more complete, integrated picture of climate and ecosystem changes in the region.

“Climate warming has put a great deal of stress on ecosystems in the high latitudes, but the stress looks very different from place to place and we wanted to quantify those differences,” said Dr. Jennifer Watts, Arctic program director at Woodwell Climate and lead author of the study. “Detecting hotspots at the local and regional level helps us not only to build a more precise picture of how Arctic warming is affecting ecosystems, but to identify places where we really need to focus future monitoring efforts and management resources.”

The team used spatial statistics to detect “neighborhoods,” or regions of particularly high levels of change during the past decade. 

“This study is exactly why we have developed these kinds of spatial statistic tools in our technology. We are so proud to be working closely with Woodwell Climate on identifying and publishing these kinds of vulnerability hotspots that require effective and immediate climate adaptation action and long-term policy,” said Dr. Dawn Wright, chief scientist at Esri. “This is essentially what we mean by the ‘Science of Where.’”

The findings paint a complex and concerning picture. 

The most substantial land warming between 1997-2020 occurred in the far eastern Siberian tundra and throughout central Siberia. Approximately 99% of the Eurasian tundra region experienced significant warming, compared to 72% of Eurasian boreal forests. While some hotspots in Siberia and the Northwest Territories of Canada grew drier, the researchers detected increased surface water and flooding in parts of North America, including Alaska’s Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta and central Canada. These increases in water on the landscape over time are likely a sign of thawing permafrost.

Among the 20 most vulnerable places the researchers identified, all contained permafrost.

“The Arctic and boreal regions are made up of diverse ecosystems, and this study reveals some of the complex ways they are responding to climate warming,” said Dr. Sue Natali, lead of the Permafrost Pathways project at Woodwell Climate and co-author of the study. “However, permafrost was a common denominator—the most climate-stressed regions all contained permafrost, which is vulnerable to thaw as temperatures rise. That’s a really concerning signal.”   

For land managers and other decisionmakers, local and regional hotspot mapping like this can serve as a more useful monitoring tool than region-wide averages. Take, for instance, the example of Covid-19 tracking data: maps of county-by-county wastewater data tend to be more helpful tools to guide decision making than national averages, since rates of disease prevalence and transmission can vary widely among communities at a given moment in time. So, too, with climate trends: local data and trend detection can support management and adaptation approaches that account for unique and shifting conditions on the ground.

The significant changes the team detected in the Siberian boreal forest region should serve as a wakeup call, said Watts. “These forested regions, which have been helping take up and store carbon dioxide, are now showing major climate stresses and increasing risk of fire. We need to work as a global community to protect these important and vulnerable boreal ecosystems, while also reining in fossil fuel emissions.”

Overview of COP29

The 2024 UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) took place from November 11–24, 2024 in Baku, Azerbaijan. The conference was characterized by five key expectations:

The focus on climate finance permeated the conference, as countries used finance considerations as bargaining chips across all negotiating tracks. The meetings began with an agenda fight as China, India and others sought to discuss unilateral trade measures in reaction to the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism, which they see as an illicit trade barrier. Others sought more ways to reflect climate finance on the agenda. Consequently, one day of negotiations was lost. But delegates were determined to succeed, at least to reduce the disruption expected in 2025 from political upheaval around the world.

Thus, by its second day, the conference settled into a stable mode of work, though countries struggled to advance the negotiations in the first week. The Azerbaijani Presidency had to take much riskier steps to compensate for this. In the second week, pairs of ministers were assigned to lead work on the finance goal, mitigation ambition, adaptation, and Article 6. On Thursday, the Presidency issued a first package of draft outcomes, built on recommendations from technical negotiations and ministers. The presidency organized a meeting, which resulted in most countries criticizing the initial package. But the Presidency published two more iterations, while constantly consulting with all groups of Parties. Through this, a balance was found, and the outcomes were adopted early on Sunday, November 24. Some countries, including India, Nigeria and Bolivia, tried to block the adoption of the finance goal, and were severely unhappy with the outcomes and the process.

Key decisions taken at COP29

The main substantive outcome of COP29 was named the Baku Climate Unity Pact, comprising:

Other key decisions were adopted in relation to:

There were several key issues that could not be concluded. On all of these, Parties did not reach consensus and will continue next year based on the latest materials discussed at COP29:

General observations about the outcomes

Outlook towards COP30

COP29 mostly tied up loose ends that have been complicating the UNFCCC for several years: the new climate finance goal and Article 6. However, the dissatisfaction with the finance goal among developing countries might create problems in 2025, it remains to be seen if the Article 6.4 mechanism will have environmental integrity, and no new solutions were found for mitigation ambition. In addition, the global climate policy landscape is now dotted with dialogues and round tables that are supposed to discuss finance, ambition, adaptation, etc., creating a potential distraction from the “ambition homework” that governments should now be undertaking. In 2025, these challenges will be complicated by the intentions of some countries to leave the Paris Agreement.

In 2025, the main milestone is the deadline for new NDCs on February 9. These will show how well the ambition mechanism of the Paris Agreement is working. However, the global climate regime lacks any robust follow-up mechanism for these because, under the Paris Agreement, ambition is nationally determined. The “Troika” of Presidencies of COP28, 29 and 30 will continue its work, but so far has not generated any visible results, and its hands are similarly tied by the paradigm of national determination. Brazil will take a more leading role in 2025 and might benefit from close ties to all major economies and the developing world. In a nutshell, the COP30 Presidency has inherited a major ambition challenge, but has very few tools to respond to it. Positively, Brazil has experienced negotiators and knows how to navigate the UNFCCC.

The official agenda for COP30 was supposed to be modest, but several things not agreed at this COP will need to be taken up again. The issues that should be concluded include: the global resilience indicators, the arrangements for the global stocktake dialogue, as well as just transition. However, the clear expectation is that the COP should do something about mitigation (though nobody knows what exactly), and developing countries, especially those that took home grievances from COP29, will consider the climate finance conversation far from over.

The UN process remains the main framework for coordinating and enabling global climate collaboration. It is slow and it gravitates towards the lowest common denominator, but it continues to bring together the most influential global actors—national governments—to work to bridge their differences.

Why more frequent cold blasts could be coming from global warming

Stock image: A person walks away from the camera down a snowy street, next to cars blanketed with snow

Frigid air that normally stays trapped in the Arctic has escaped, plunging deep into the United States for an extended visit that is expected to provoke teeth-chattering but not be record-shattering.

It’s a cold air outbreak that some experts say is happening more frequently, and paradoxically, because of a warming world. Such cold air blasts have become known as the polar vortex. It’s a long-established weather term that’s become mainstream as its technical meaning changed a bit on the way.

Continue reading on AP News.

A year of extreme weather that challenged billions

a satellite image looking straight down at Hurricane Beryl's swirling array of clouds

Climate change has brought record-breaking heat this year, and with it extreme weather, from hurricanes to month-long droughts.

This year is expected to be the hottest on record, and new research shows that people around the world experienced an additional 41 days of dangerous heat due to climate change.

Researchers from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group at Imperial College and Climate Central said the study shows “we are living in a dangerous new era”.

From Brazil to Indonesia we take a look back at the climate events that affected the lives of billions in 2024.

Read more on the BBC.

Communicating science

Scientific research is essential to almost all aspects of life- yet we’re in an age when scientists and their findings are met with contempt, distrust and even anger. We hear how this impacts scientists professionally and personally, and discuss strategies for repairing the relationship between science and the public.

With us:
Anne Toomey, associate professor of environmental studies and science at Pace University. She’s the author of the new book Science with Impact- How to Engage People, Change Practice, and Influence Policy
Heather Goldstone, Chief Communications Officer at Woodwell Climate Research Center
Chris Gloninger, Senior Climate Scientist at the Woods Hole Group.

Listen on The Point on WCAI.

Explore these 15 maps by award-winning Woodwell Climate cartographers Greg Fiske and Christina Shintani. Created in 2024, each tells a story about the immense beauty of the high north, the dramatic changes unfolding as the Arctic continues to warm three to four times faster than the rest of the world, and the equitable solutions being developed to address climate impacts in the region

Read More on Permafrost Pathways.

The impacts of climate change on the frequency and severity of physical hazards are putting many communities at risk. As the threat of climate change grows, so too does the need for accessible information, tools, and expertise to support climate-resilient decision making across multiple scales, from communities to countries. Woodwell Climate Research Center believes there is a need to localize and customize climate risk assessments. This information is critical for local government leaders as they make planning decisions, but it is not available to all communities. Woodwell believes that this science should be freely and widely available. To address this gap, Woodwell works with communities across the world, including Chicopee, MA, to provide community climate risk assessments, free of charge.

The impacts of climate change on the frequency and severity of physical hazards are putting many communities at risk. As the threat of climate change grows, so too does the need for accessible information, tools, and expertise to support climate-resilient decision making across multiple scales, from communities to countries. Woodwell Climate Research Center believes there is a need to localize and customize climate risk assessments. This information is critical for local government leaders as they make planning decisions, but it is not available to all communities. Woodwell believes that this science should be freely and widely available. To address this gap, Woodwell works with communities across the world, including Barnstable, MA, to provide community climate risk assessments, free of charge.