In the US, state and federal governments regularly fight wildfires that threaten people and property, but Alaska’s Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge recently began piloting a novel strategy: putting out fires to prevent climate-warming carbon emissions from being released from trees and soils.
Read more on caryinstitute.org
A new study, published in Nature Communications Earth and Environment and co-authored by researchers at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. (AER) and Woodwell Climate Research Center, finds that abnormally warm temperatures in the Arctic are associated with a higher likelihood of severe winter weather including cold-air outbreaks and heavy snowfall in Northern Hemisphere continents.
“When the Arctic atmosphere is warmer than normal, we see a much higher likelihood of extreme winter weather across much of Canada, the northern U.S. and northern Eurasia,” remarked lead author, Dr. Judah Cohen at AER. “The relationship is especially strong in the northeastern sections of the continents.”
“Even though we’re seeing cold records being broken less often as the globe warms, we’ll still see debilitating spells of severe winter weather,” added co-author Dr. Jennifer Francis at Woodwell Climate. “There will be plenty of ice, snow, and frigid air in the Arctic winter for decades to come, and that cold can be displaced southward into heavily populated regions during Arctic heat waves.”
Recent disruptive extreme winter weather events—such as the deadly Texas cold spell of February 2021—have occurred and will continue to occur in the future, wreaking havoc on infrastructure, human wellbeing, and ecosystems, especially in areas unaccustomed to and ill-equipped for dealing with winter extremes.
“The Arctic may seem irrelevant and far away to most folks, but our findings say the profound changes there are affecting billions of people around the Northern Hemisphere,” added Dr. Francis. To reverse these trends, “it will take bold and rapid actions to reduce our burning of fossil fuels and the build-up of heat-trapping gasses in the atmosphere, but the tools exist if we can muster the will.”
According to Francis, recent studies have theorized that rapid Arctic warming, a pace three-to-four times faster than the globe as a whole, may increase the likelihood of extreme weather events owing to a reduced north/south temperature difference. In addition, slower westerly winds of the jet stream lead to more frequent convoluted jet-stream configurations, which lead to unusual weather.
“Disruptions in the typically stable stratospheric polar vortex may also occur more often in a warming climate,” noted Cohen, “and we know hazardous winter weather is more likely during these disruptions.”
In February, Woodwell Climate Research Center’s new Climate Justice committee gathered for the very first time. Even through the screen, you could feel it—a buzz of anticipation, the spark of hope, as folks from across the organization came together to dream about the vision and goals ahead.
This was no ordinary meeting—it was the first step in what many hope will be a transformative journey for Woodwell Climate, guiding us toward a more just and equitable climate future. Like a handful of seeds taking root, this meeting was full of potential. Participants shared ideas and intentions that, with care and nurture, could grow into something powerful that reshapes the landscape of Woodwell Climate’s global impact.
Climate justice is indispensable to Woodwell’s work
Climate change is being felt around the world, but as its effects become more frequent and intense, the unequal impacts on different communities become more obvious. Some communities are disproportionately affected, while others benefit more from societal responses to climate change.
A salient example of this can be found in the aftermath of climate-related disasters like hurricanes or wildfires. Affluence of a community or country plays a role in shielding citizens from the worst effects of the disaster, and efforts to rebuild are often much swifter. Meanwhile, low income communities must often face forced displacement, material destruction, and cultural degradation.
This growing disparity underscores the need for research and solutions that acknowledge and work to rectify these inequities. Because climate change creates and exacerbates inequitable situations, addressing disparity must be a central consideration in both current climate research and long-term climate adaptation strategies.
Climate justice is an approach to addressing climate change that not only considers, but centers, disproportionate impacts. It integrates principles of social justice, human rights, and equity, emphasizing the interconnectedness of environmental issues with systems of oppression. By centering those most affected by climate injustice—who are also the least responsible for causing it—climate justice reframes the issue as not only scientific, technical, or financial but as a moral and justice concern. It requires us to consider not just where and how climate change is happening but also who is excluded or marginalized by the physical and social mechanisms of climate change and by any adaptation or mitigation efforts we pursue.
As an institution dedicated to using science to inform climate change policy, integrating climate justice enriches our work in five significant ways.
- First, by identifying who is disproportionately affected, our research and policy recommendations can be more targeted and effective in addressing vulnerabilities that might otherwise be overlooked.
- Second, demonstrating a commitment to equity in our work increases our credibility and broadens our support among diverse stakeholders, including members of historically marginalized communities.
- Third, understanding the social, cultural, and economic contexts in which climate impacts occur allows us to develop strategies that are not only scientifically sound but also socially relevant and adaptable.
- Fourth, policies shaped with an awareness of who is excluded or marginalized are more likely to succeed because they are grounded in the realities of those most affected.
- Lastly, by considering who is excluded or marginalized, we can address not only the symptoms but also the root causes of climate injustice, leading to more comprehensive and lasting solutions.
Nurturing a growing climate justice ecosystem
It’s essential to remember that this kind of transformative work is often slow, challenging, and asks for a commitment that stretches beyond the urgency of the moment. There’s no magic wand, no quick-fix—something we know deeply, sometimes frustratingly, from our scientific work. Real climate justice isn’t something you can cook up in isolation or rush through with a checklist. It’s born from the steady, patient work of weaving relationships, dismantling entrenched inequalities, and watering the seeds of small, consistent actions—nurtured across many hands and hearts over time, even when the growth feels almost imperceptible.
Think of it like the slow growth of trees that eventually give rise to forests—subtle, persistent, inevitable. The key is to stay rooted in purpose, grounded in the values that guide us, trusting that even the smallest efforts will accumulate into something deep, something strong, something lasting—like a mature old-growth forest, resilient through the cycles of time.
The work we’re doing as a committee is very much in its early, tender stages. It is dynamic and evolving, like the ‘pioneer stage’ of a forest’s life. Here, the groundwork is being lovingly (and with considerable effort) laid for what’s to come, like the lichens and mosses breaking down rock, slowly transforming barren ground into rich, life-giving soil. In these first steps, we are creating the conditions for future growth, for future flourishing.
As we move forward, the process becomes more complex—a kind of intermediate stage. Dandelions, grasses, the boldest and most audacious plants take root first, thanks to the quiet, persistent work of the mosses and lichens. The rest need a little more nurturing, a bit more care. Diversity begins to blossom—shrubs, small trees, and layers of life start to interweave, creating habitats for fungi, microbes, and animals. The community is expanding, deepening, finding its rhythm. Together as a committee we will expand our capacity to interweave more complex ideas and projects, allowing our work to deepen and evolve like a thriving ecosystem.
And then, like the forest maturing into its climax stage, we envision a time when the ecosystem is stable, resilient, and thriving—a rich blend of old, wise trees and vibrant new growth. A place where deep-rooted interconnectedness allows life to sustain itself, weathering disturbances with grace. As a Climate Justice Committee, we aim to create a space where renewal is constant, change is embraced, and growth is continuous—ever adaptive, ever committed to justice, and ever alive to the needs of all, as Woodwell Climate continues to work towards an equitable, healthy and sustainable world.
Pioneering climate justice work at Woodwell
Our first offering as a committee of mosses and lichens is to craft a set of actionable recommendations to help guide Woodwell Climate toward a future where our work is deeply rooted in the principles of climate justice, rich in diverse perspectives, and resilient in the face of challenges. This is our way of fostering the right environment for the seeds of future work to grow into a thriving, enduring ecosystem of ideas and actions. Our pioneer stage isn’t growing from a completely “barren substrate” however. We’re rich in resources – our science, staff, and you, our supporters reading this!
While developing these recommendations will be inherently challenging, it’s critical that we get it right together. How we reach our goals is just as important as the goals themselves, and our collaborative process should reflect principles of justice, equity and mutual support. In other words, the process itself should be a model of the world we are trying to create.
Drawing inspiration from Team Science—a collaborative approach to scientific challenges—Adrienne Maree Brown’s Emergent Strategy, which highlights the importance of cultivating relationships, trust, and community-building in collaborative work, and Dean Spade’s Mutual Aid, which emphasizes equitable distribution of roles, responsibilities, and credit in a supportive environment, we have created a team charter, establishing the principles guiding how we will work together.
The team charter aligns members on the goals we are working toward and how members will approach the work together, providing clarity and focus. It creates a shared understanding of the team’s purpose and mission and fosters a sense of ownership and commitment that makes it easier to stay focused on long-term goals. By clearly defining roles and responsibilities, the charter reduces confusion and prevents overlap, ensuring that everyone’s contributions are recognized and understood. The guidelines for equitable participation, decision-making, and conflict resolution, set forth in the charter, help build a culture where all voices are heard and respected. Principles of flexibility and continued improvement are embedded into the charter as well, allowing the team to adapt as needed.
Our hope is that this foundational work, like the pioneer stages of a forest, sets the stage for a process of ongoing growth, adaptation, and transformation that will carry Woodwell’s climate justice work into the future. As our work progresses (starting now with developing those recommendations), we’ll move through the intermediate stages of ecological succession—where new members are integrated and experimentation thrives. We’ll learn from both successes and setbacks, like our scientists testing their ideas in the field. Ultimately, we’ll cultivate a mature, stable ecosystem, where deep-rooted relationships hold the committee together.
Yet even in this stage, just as in a primary forest, dynamic change continues. A gap in the canopy lets in light, sparking fresh growth and kickstarting another round of succession. We find ourselves asking: How might we spark deep and lasting change for a just climate future? The forest teaches us that the answers lie in cycles of renewal, in allowing space for the new while honoring the stability of what’s been built.
On Wednesday, September 25, 2024 at 10:00 a.m EDT, representatives from Woodwell Climate Research Center and IPAM Amazônia joined Governor of Pará, Brazil Helder Barbalho, for a special Climate Week event to explore the impacts of climate change on the state of Pará, and launch a new partnership to develop an in-depth climate risk assessment for the state that can inform local adaptation plans and solutions.
“Three years ago, Woodwell Climate partnered with the UK COP 26 Presidency on research that showed the lack of access to tailored, actionable climate risk information was a critical barrier to climate mitigation and resilience planning at the national and sub-national level,” said Dr. Wayne Walker, Chief Scientific Officer for Woodwell Climate Research Center. “Now, we are proud to be partnering with next year’s COP 30 host on work that provides a clear example of how to bridge this important information gap for the state of Pará.”
In 2021, Woodwell Climate and IPAM conducted an initial climate risk assessment for Belém, the capital of Pará and host of next year’s UN climate negotiations, COP30. The study found that the hottest months in the region are getting hotter, and a growing number of days per year are hitting dangerously high wet-bulb – or “feels like” – temperatures, increasing risk of severe heat stress, especially in a city where most economic activities take place outdoors. It also found that the fire season in Pará is getting longer, exposing local communities to extended periods of worsening air quality. A new, more comprehensive climate risk assessment, the initial results of which were presented during Wednesday’s event, shows that Belém is, and will continue to be, at high risk of severe flooding.
“If climate change continues on its current path, Pará will face crises on multiple fronts—with forests devastated by drought and fire, and cities facing devastating extreme heat and flooding,” said Dr. Ludmila Rattis, Assistant Scientist in Woodwell Climate’s Tropics Program. “The roots of these challenges are global and understanding that can drive urgent action to both reduce greenhouse gas emissions and begin necessary adaptation efforts.”
Through this new agreement, Woodwell Climate, IPAM Amazônia, and the Pará government will build on the findings of these assessments to analyze the climate risks facing the Pará region and co-develop effective climate solutions to address them, including identifying areas where green infrastructure could be implemented, pathways to transition to new, more sustainable economies in Pará and across the Amazon, and other mitigation and adaptation strategies.
“The quality of science to support decision-making is fundamental,” said Governor Helder Barbalho. “As the capitol [of Pará] and as the host city of COP30 next year, Belém at this moment has the opportunity for major infrastructure works that will not be the whole solution, but certainly can improve water management, sanitation management, macro-drainage infrastructure to maintain the character of a city surrounded by rivers.”
As a part of this effort, Woodwell Climate will also work with IPAM and the Pará government to develop a case study, as a part of Woodwell’s Unlocking Land-based Opportunities for Climate Solutions (UnLOCS) initiative, to investigate how to effectively scale nature-based climate solutions in Pará leveraging mechanisms like the voluntary carbon market, with the goal of dramatically reducing emissions from land use while delivering meaningful benefits to local communities, ecosystems, and economies.
“We cannot imagine that looking at the forest requires [only] public policies for the forest,” said Governor Barbalho. “We need to be able to look at the forest, but know that the impact of them will require us to act in urban centers.”
“I want to reaffirm IPAM’s commitment to this partnership that we have had with the government of Pará, the State of Pará, and the people of Pará,” said André Guimarães, Executive Director of IPAM Amazônia (Amazon Environmental Research Institute). “We have to work collectively. There is no single solution to the problems we are facing today.”
“This is an incredible opportunity to focus the world’s attention on tropical forests, on Brazil, on Pará,” said Dr. R. Max Holmes, President and CEO of Woodwell Climate Research Center. “We all understand that the Amazon is an incredibly important region, not just for Brazil and for the people that live there, but for the entire world—for all of us.”
In the Amazon Rainforest, there is no such thing as a natural fire. Yet every year we see headlines of rainforest vegetation aflame, smoke drifting across populated areas, and stored carbon spilling into the atmosphere. So how does a rainforest—one of the wettest ecosystems on Earth—catch fire?
Climate impacts on Amazon fire
Whether directly or indirectly, human activities are the root cause of fire in the Amazon.
In order for a fire to start anywhere, you need three things— favorable climatic conditions, a fuel source, and an ignition source. In the Amazon, each side of this “triangle of fire” has been exacerbated by warming temperatures and deforestation, creating flammable conditions that can allow fires to spread out of control deep into the forest once they are ignited.
Climate conditions
High temperature and dryness combine to create the right conditions for fires to spread through the Amazon. As global temperatures have risen, the Amazon region has become hotter and drier, more vulnerable to prolonged droughts and extreme climatic events. Most recently, a climate-driven drought spanning 2023 and 2024 has deeply impacted water levels in the forest— to the point of isolating riverside communities.
Wildfire danger days, or days considered hot and dry enough to increase the likelihood of fire, have become a much more common occurrence deeper in the Amazon, where previously it was just too wet to burn.
Fuel
Felled trees and dry vegetation form the fuel for more fires in the Amazon. How do the trees fall? Some are killed in extreme drought and previous fire, but many are intentionally cut, pushed over by bulldozers for conversion of forest to pasture land. Large-scale deforestation has been advancing into the Amazon for decades, fragmenting thick blocks of forest and replacing them with ranch or farm land. Scientists and activists have been pushing for an urgent stop in deforestation to achieve, among other benefits, a drop in fire numbers. However, despite slowly declining deforestation rates, fires are still increasing, pointing to another important piece of the puzzle – degradation.
When a forest is fragmented by deforestation, it degrades the vegetation that remains standing. Forests along the edges of clearings dry out and weaken, making them more susceptible to future burning. And burning weakens nearby forests yet again, creating more available fuel, setting off a chain of degradation.
Ignition
Ignition in the Amazon is almost entirely human caused— whether accidentally or intentionally. Ranch and farm operations both legally and illegally clearing Amazon rainforest use fire to burn away cut vegetation or prepare existing pasture land for other uses. With climate change creating hotter and drier conditions, and lengthening the dangerous dry season, any ignition becomes potentially risky, whether or not its use is legalized. Especially where forest edges have already been weakened.
However, a study led by Woodwell Climate Postdoctoral Researcher and fire ecologist Dr. Manoela Machado, found that long-term solutions to the Amazon’s fire crisis will require distinguishing between the complex uses of fire. One-size-fits-all fire bans, usually employed as emergency measures and not always strictly enforced, may reduce fire in the short term, but don’t adequately address the underlying reasons people have decided to burn the land.
Ending deforestation and supporting firefighters
Fire in the Amazon follows deforestation and degradation, namely from logging, fires, droughts and fragmentation. Climate change and human encroachment have worked in concert to foster a devastating annual burning regime in the Amazon rainforest that threatens one of the Earth’s most valuable mechanisms for keeping the planet cool.
Eliminating fire from the Amazon will require the elimination of deforestation and degradation sources, as well as the enforcement of strategic fire bans and support of firefighting brigades. Machado, has led several successful workshops with Indigenous fire brigades in Brazil, bringing together groups from across the country to learn about Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology they can use to monitor and manage their own forests.
According to Machado, a big part of fire prevention happens in the off-season. Support for activities like community outreach, building fire breaks in collaboration with farmers, and technical assistance to replace legal use of fire, can all help reduce the prevalence of catastrophic fires when the dry-season comes around.
The Amazon is a massive place, and firefighting can be a dangerous job. Especially on the frontiers of deforestation, where land grabbing and illegal deforestation are common and fire fighters are often threatened to stay out of an area. Ultimately, government support, bolstered enforcement of deforestation laws, and viable alternative livelihoods have a major role to play in bringing down fires, alongside continued global efforts to curb climate change.
New legislation proposed in the U.S. Senate would for the first time consider the importance of monitoring permafrost thaw as part of a broader effort to improve U.S. weather forecasting and modeling, and support cutting-edge tools and resources to better track this serious environmental hazard in the North.
Read more on Permafrost Pathways.
Fire is a necessary element in northern forests, but with climate change, these fires are shifting to a far less natural regime— one that threatens the ecosystem instead of nurturing it.
Boreal tree species, like black spruce, have co-evolved over millennia with a steady regime of low-frequency, high-intensity fires, usually ignited by lightning strikes. These fires promote turnover in vegetation and foster new growth. On average, every 100 to 150 years, an intense “stand-replacing” fire might completely raze a patch of forest, opening a space for young seedlings to take root.
But rapid warming in northern latitudes has intensified this cycle, sparking large fires on the landscape more frequently, jeopardizing regeneration, and releasing massive amounts of carbon that will feed additional warming. Here’s how climate change is impacting boreal fires.
Climate Impacts on Boreal Fire
In order for a fire to start, you need three things— favorable climatic conditions, a fuel source, and an ignition source. These elements, referred to as the triangle of fire, are all being exacerbated as boreal forests warm, resulting in a fire regime with much larger and more frequent fires than the forests evolved with.
Climate conditions
Forest fires only ignite in the right conditions, when high temperatures combine with dryness in the summer months. As northern latitudes warm at a rate three to four times faster than the rest of the globe, fire seasons in the boreal have lengthened, and the number of fire-risk days have increased.
In some areas of high-latitude forest, climate change has changed the dynamics of snowfall and snow cover disappearance. The rate of spring snowmelt is often an important factor in water availability on a landscape throughout the summer. A recent paper, led by Dr. Thomas Hessilt of Vrije University in collaboration with Woodwell Associate Scientist, Dr. Brendan Rogers, found that earlier snow cover disappearance resulted in increased fire ignitions. Early snow disappearance was also associated with earlier-season fires, which were more likely to grow larger— on average 77% larger than historical fires.
Fuel
The second requirement for fires to start is available “fuel”. In a forest, that’s vegetation (both living and dead) as well as carbon-rich soils that have built up over centuries. Here, the warming climate plays a role in priming vegetation to burn. A paper co-authored by Rogers has demonstrated temperatures above approximately 71 F in the forest canopy can be a useful indicator for the ignition and spread of “mega-fires,” which spread massive distances through the upper branches of trees. The findings suggest that heat-stressed vegetation plays a big role in triggering these large fires.
Warming has also triggered a feedback loop around fuel in boreal systems. In North America, the historically dominant black spruce is struggling to regenerate between frequent, intense fires. In some places, it is being replaced by competitor species like white spruce or aspen, which don’t support the same shaded, mossy environment that insulates frozen, carbon-rich soils called permafrost, making the ground more vulnerable to deep-burning fires. When permafrost soils thaw and burn, they release carbon that has been stored—sometimes for thousands of years—contributing to the acceleration of warming.
Ignition
Finally, fires need an ignition source. In the boreal, natural ignitions from lightning are the most frequent culprit, although human-caused ignitions have become more common as development expands into northern forests.
Because of lightning’s ephemeral nature, it has been difficult to quantify the impacts of climate change on lightning strikes, but recent research has shown lightning ignitions have been increasing since 1975, and that record numbers of lightning ignitions correlated with years of record large fires. Some models indicate summer lightning rates will continue to increase as global temperatures rise.
There is also evidence showing that a certain type of lightning— one more likely to result in ignition— has been increasing. This “hot lightning” is a type of lightning strike that channels an electrical charge for an extended period of time and tends to correlate more frequently with ignitions. Analysis of satellite data suggests that with every one degree celsius of the Earth’s warming, there might be a 10% increase in the frequency of these hot lightning strikes. That, coupled with increasingly dry conditions, sets the stage for more frequent fire ignitions.
Fire Management as a Climate Solution
So climate change is intensifying every side of the triangle of fire, and the combined effects are resulting in more frequent, larger, more intense blazes that contribute more carbon to the atmosphere. While the permanent solution to bring fires back to their natural regimes lies in curbing global emissions, research from Woodwell Climate suggests that firefighting in boreal forests can be a successful emissions mitigation strategy. And a cost effective one too— perhaps as little as $13 per metric ton of carbon dioxide avoided, which puts it on par with other carbon mitigation solutions like onshore wind or utility-scale solar. It also has the added benefit of protecting communities from the health risk of wildfire smoke.
Rogers, along with Senior Science Policy Advisor, Dr. Peter Frumhoff, and Postdoctoral researcher Dr. Kayla Mathes have begun work in collaboration with the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska to pilot this solution as part of the Permafrost Pathways project. Yukon Flats is underlain by large tracts of particularly carbon-rich permafrost soils, making it a good candidate for fire suppression tactics to protect stored carbon.
The project will be the first of its kind— working with communities in and around the Refuge as well as US agencies to develop and test best practices around fighting boreal fires specifically to protect carbon. Broadening deployment of fire management could be one strategy to mitigate the worst effects of intensifying boreal fires, buying time we need to get global emissions in check.
In recent public comment, scientists at Woodwell Climate Research Center warn against the use of the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) clean electricity tax credits to support biomass as an effective clean energy solution. Scientists cited its higher carbon footprint per unit energy compared to burning fossil fuels, and highlighted that claims to offset these emissions by planting trees are misleading, as new trees take decades to centuries to recapture lost carbon. The comment, submitted in response to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and U.S. Department of Treasury’s proposed guidance on the Clean Electricity Production Credit and Clean Electricity Investment Credit, advocates for more rigorous guardrails from the agencies regarding the use of wood for bioenergy, greater regulatory clarity, and more accurate accounting of emissions from wood-burned fuel.
The Clean Electricity Production and Investment Credits were designed to provide incentives “to any clean energy facility that achieves net zero greenhouse gas emissions.” The proposed guidance, released in June, is intended to clarify and add certainty around how to measure and define “net zero,” and how clean energy production facilities can qualify for these incentives.
In their comment, however, scientists emphasize more work must be done to achieve this goal: “The content of the proposed guidance is ambiguous or even conflicting about some parts of the rule regarding sources of forest bioenergy,” they write. “Parts of the guidance should be made much clearer and more definitive to ensure that there are no unintended consequences. Guardrails could be put in place to avoid the many ways that increasing use of wood for bioenergy would increase emissions rather than having the desired effect of decreasing emissions. It is also important to consider the many values of forests beyond climate mitigation, such as timber, biodiversity, water, and recreation.”
Scientists also note the proposed guidance does not properly account for the net emissions associated with forest bioenergy – all of which contribute to its high carbon footprint and add to concerns from experts that biomass can actually worsen the climate crisis – including those from harvesting intact forests, logging debris, transporting woody biomass, and converting biomass to fuel, as well as from feedstock, fertilizers, and forest management practices like thinning, where live trees are removed to reduce wildfire risk or promote forest growth, and more.
Because many of these emissions are left out, the proposed guidance overestimates the potential of forest bioenergy to achieve the IRA’s intended goal of lowering emissions, and further fuels incorrect assumptions that biomass energy is an effective, carbon-neutral alternative to fossil fuels.
Throughout the comment, scientists offer recommendations to help decision makers more accurately incorporate and represent these emissions in policy. For example: 1) account for both direct and indirect emissions; 2) avoid the fallacy of assuming carbon neutrality; and 3) take a case-by-case approach to calculate the counterfactual emissions, or what the emissions would have been had the wood or biomass not been used for bioenergy; among others.