Five things to know about the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement

One of President Trump’s first actions this past week—and also in his first term—was to announce the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement. It is a step that is both misinformed and misguided. But how much difference will it make? Here’s what you need to know.

1. Significance of the Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement was adopted by 197 countries in December 2015 and has been the underpinning of international climate action for nearly a decade. The goals and strategies it sets out are critically important to maintaining a stable climate, which is the foundation of successful societies and economies. The Parties to the Paris Agreement are legally obliged to submit national climate plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years. However, the content and level of ambition of those NDCs are (as the framing “nationally determined” makes clear) up to the Party itself. 

2. Immediate legal implications

The Paris Agreement stipulates that any nation’s withdrawal takes effect one year after an official notice has been submitted to the Secretary-General of the United Nations.  In the case of the United States, the earliest effective date of official withdrawal is, therefore, sometime in January 2026. After that, the country will not be bound by its obligations under the Paris Agreement. Those include the submission of NDCs every five years, accounting of progress toward commitments, the submission of biennial transparency reports, and the general obligation to provide climate finance. The United States will also lose, in particular, its right to vote on decisions within the governing body of the Paris Agreement, to nominate members to institutions serving the Paris Agreement, and to participate in emission trading under the Paris Agreement. However, as the United States submitted a new NDC and a biennial transparency report in December 2024, it is currently in compliance with the key obligations under the Paris Agreement.

3. What withdrawal from the Paris Agreement doesn’t do

The executive order of January 21, 2025 does not withdraw the US from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the 1992 treaty that established the international climate negotiation process. The language of the executive order indicates that this is deliberate—the US will retain its right to vote in the Conference of Parties, as well as its reporting obligations under the UNFCCC. This is possibly due to the fact that a withdrawal from the UNFCCC, a treaty ratified by the U.S. Senate in 1992,  requires a two-thirds majority in the Senate. It is also notable that no action has been taken to withdraw the NDC submitted by the Biden Administration in December 2024.

4. The policy impact

The United States’ withdrawal makes maintaining—let alone enhancing—the ambition of emission reduction efforts across the world significantly more difficult. When a major emitter “free-rides,” it de-motivates ambition by others. However, although the U.S. has the second-highest GHG emissions in the world, and has always been a key player in global climate collaboration, it is important to bear in mind that 194 other countries representing approximately 90% of global emissions have not withdrawn from the Paris Agreement. 

The executive order is targeted at stopping any U.S. climate finance contributions. This will mean that the new global climate finance goal of $1.3 trillion per year by 2035, agreed upon in Baku, has become much harder to achieve. This will impact the poorest countries directly, as well as degrading the international community’s trust in the effectiveness of the process.

5. What happened last time

President Trump also withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement during his first administration. Then, as now, one of the primary impacts was to create a leadership vacuum. In that case, that vacuum was largely filled by other nations, plus state, local, and business leaders. The resulting groundswell generated momentum that carried into the Biden Administration and the U.S. re-entry into the Paris Agreement. While much of that foundation remains strong, trends in the private sector have shifted, with a growing number of major corporations and financial institutions backing away from their climate commitments. Global geopolitics has also evolved, raising questions about what role other governments, in particular China, might play in reaction to the United States’ withdrawal from the international governance structures.